The Bull: Biding His Time, Having a Beer, as He Awaits the Coming New Year!

11:55 AM EST 12/31/2011


The stock market ends the year with a Ho-Hum and a Sigh.  No fireworks, No Booms, No Bangs.  But the charts still favor the Bulls.  The DIA daily and weekly charts are below and annotated for your reading amusement.  We ended the year slightly above my predicted 12,000 with the DJ-30 at 12,217.  (Applause and cheers please!)  That's UP from last years close of 11,577.  Yes, I know, the press is playing up the SPY clsoing even.  It makes for a better sound bite, eh?

Damned pundits,
And talking heads.
Still yakking away,
When they should be in bed.

As we await the new trading year let me wish you all a very Happy New Year filled with profits and void of pundits and fools.  Click the link below as you read the annotated charts and enjoy a drink with me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acxnmaVTlZA

Momentum - went home
Trend  - Sideways while awaiting the Bull to begin his trek for 2012

Bears 2, Bulls 0

9:10 PM EST Wednesday 12/28/11


Yesterday I pointed out the inability of the indices to get over the resistance line.  (Bears 1, Bulls 0)  And today the reversal took place as the bears won the day.  No surprise to anyone reading this column.  So we're headed back down to a 12,000 DOW to finish the year.  What?  Huh?  Oh, yes, you're right!  OMG~  That is where I predicted we would end the year!!  And mark my words, if we end under that, it spells touble for 2012.

Here's the charts.  Target 20 EMA on the DIA = 120.10

Momentum = Not enough to move a snail
Trend  = Sideways

CHARTS~

Split Decision~? Nah

9 pm EST Tuesday 12/27/11


Today was a really boring day.  And I am still enjoying the holidays.  So what in the heck am I writing this for?  Shits and grins of course!!

Ok, here's the deal.  DIA did try to break out, but then is lost it all like a whoopee cushion losing air.  And the SPY never really broke wind.  So it's Bears by one with 3 days to go.  Seems Santa left lumps of coal for a lot of traders.

Momentum - Is there any?
Trend - Sideways

Charts below!!

The Little Engine that Could

Yes it was looking good until........until........until we got to the resistance line. And then the little engine that could.........didn't. And volume was pitiful. True we expected poor volume so no penalties assessed.

It all falls on Monday. Reversal or rally, Monday will give us our clues. Me? I'm still out for the holidays. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year To all.

Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Alert

9:14 PM EST 12-22-11


Tonight I was just gazing at the charts and I realized there is a reverse head and shoulders formation for the DIA and the SPY.  This is a bullish formation and could give us a very nice upside rally.  But don't be too quick to jump in!  Price has to break through the resistance line.

The probable rally afterwards is calculated by taking the high after the left shoulder, and subtracting the low of the head.  The difference is added to the breakout price to get the potential upside target.

For the SPY that would be as follows in approximate numbers.
128.00 - 116 = 12.00
126.50 + 12.00 = 138.50 Target Potential

For the DIA
122.00 - 112.00 = 10.00
122.50 + 10.00 = 132.50 Target Potential


Look for Volume and Pace on the breakout to avoid false moves.  And yet, this will most likely occur during a holiday week where volume is poor historically.  It will be a difficult call for each of us to make.

Personally I am most likely going to watch from the sidelines, or not at all, as I enjoy the holidays.  SPY and DIA charts below.  Happy Trading!!

Momentum - Up
Trend - Sideways

Merry Christmas to all and a Hapy New Year~!

Baa-Humbug~! Ebenezer Scrooge, circa 1843 (Charles Dickens's novel, A Christmas Carol)

7:38 AM EST December 21, 2011

Yes, I said it.  When it comes to the market I'm feeling a bit "Scrooge-like".  Except I won't be having any dreams nor will I be changing my mind and giving money away.  Ba-Humbug!!

Yes, it's been over a week since I have written here.  I just got tired of saying the same thing over and over as the market churned over and over.  And it's still churning!

Feels like an old song by the Byrds, originally written by Pete Seeger in 1959

To every index - Churn, Churn, Churn
There is a pattern  - Churn, Churn, Churn
And the Dow will end the year....at twelve thousand.

OK, ok, ok, so there's a few edits by moi~  Euroland, sudden news of good things in real estate (a likely anomaly), sanctimonious Congressmen in the House (and everywhere else) that only care for headlines and themselves, an ineffective President (awwww, can't you guys play nice nice?  Come on, we can find the middle ground, pleaseeeeeeee) and an election year a coming.  Yea, I'm not seeing the love here people!

Yes, yes, getting off topic.  Ok, the charts.  Churn, Churn, Churn.  We are still stuck in the middle of the support and resistance levels.  And I don't see that changing before the end of this year.  Yes, the Santa Claus rally could still happen.  For the record it technically encompasses the time frame around Christmas and New Years, so it's possible.  "Shyeah, and monkeys might fly out of my butt!"  Wayne, Wayne's World (Mike Myers, circa 1992)

Momentum - Don't really care
Trend  - Sideways
Charts - DIA daily and weekly, SPY daily

"Hold.......Hold.......Hold......." - William Wallace, Braveheart, Circa 1995

8:00 PM EST

Today all eyes were on the FED.  And when all was said and done we heard what we have knownin our hearts all along.  Things are improving ever so slightly here in the US.  No new Fed Action.  And Europe is a mess and could affect our recovery.  DUH!!  And it took the best of the best in financial brain power to tell us this.

And just what happened when the genius of Wall street heard this astounding news?  TANK!  Yup, look at an intraday chart and note the time of the TANK.  2PM.  Right on que.  It was as if no one really knew that Europe was still a mess.  Why wasn't this already baked in the pie?

So now we find ourselves in with WIlliam Wallace.  That famous scene where his army is ready to fight the army of Longshanks, the evil King of England.  The "Heavy Horse" are released, and the mounted soldiers gallop forward, faster and faster.  As they get closer and closer, Wallace's army (ready to lift those very long spears), waits and we hear Wallace yelling "Hold.......Hold.......Hold...."  Can you hear him?  Can you see him?

Good, because his kinsman are muttering that same sentiment and if you are long, you should be repeating it as well.  Hold.....Hold......Hold......Hold that support!  Hold.....Hold.....Hold.....SPY hold that 50 SMA!  Hold.....Hold.....Hold..... DIA hold that 200 SMA

Otherwise.......well..... let's not think about the potential downside.  It won't matter as I think we will end the year a hair above DOW 12,000

Possible bounce off support tomorrow.

Momentum - Down
Trend - Sideways


The Charts

Ahhhh, the Wonders of a Weekend~

8:03 PM EST


Seems traders had a chance to sit back and muddle about the Euroland Agreements this weekend.  Amazing what can change when reality sinks in.  Monday morning they awoke wondering how Europe would ever implement such a difficult task?  Ohhhhhh, noooooo!  How will they?  How can they?  ACKKK! (Courtesy of Bill the Cat)  So down we go!!

This market is definately Bipolar and needs some Lithium ASAP!  Is there a Psychiatrist in the house?

Not posting the charts tonight as it's nothing new.  The Spy is still fighting the resistance of the 200 SMA and has the 20 SMA for support.  The DIA has it's resistance line and is bouncing between 122.00 and 122.50

No changes in Momentum or Trend.

Much Ado About Nothing - William Shakespeare, circa 1600's

1:02 PM


Yup, seems everyone is all excited about Friday's news from Euroland.  Yet looking at the charts one has to wonder "why"?  Yes, Euroland agreed on something.  But without Britian?  Really?  REALLY?  The biggest wonder of it all was that Euroland leaders/politicians agreed on something.  Well, everyone but BRITAIN!

And what do the charts proclaim?  Much Ado About Nothing!  Thursday, the overhead resistance proved too much for the averages and they pulled back.  Friday, with all the magnificent news from Euroland AND hearing Consumer Confidence was once again higher.........we bounced back to the resistance line.  Yee haw and Whoopee doodles!!

NOTHING has really changed.  We are still bouncing along, hitting resistance and finding that it is simply too strong to penetrate.  The good news is that the averages continue to hit resistance again and again and again.  When a wall is hit over and over and over, it crumbles sooner or later.  Well, at least most of the time!!  But, when it does crumble, the forces usually pile through.

Think of the Medevil army that finally punches thru the castle gate.  After numerous attempts, the castle gate finally gives way.  And damned if those soldiers don't pile thru, overwhelming the castle guard.  At least that's how it goes in the movies!!  LOL

So...... if and when this resistance level is penetrated, there is a good chance it will be a strong punch upwards, potentially lasting for more than just a day or two.  Perhaps setting the stage for a new rally.  So keep your powder dry, be patient, and pounce when it happens.  Naturally, beware of false breakouts.  Remember too, that sometimes the Knights fail to break down the castle gate and turn tail, running home to safety.  It happens!

Momentum - Stalled
Trend - Sideways


The CHARTS - daily DIA and SPY

Viva La Resistance~

8:41 PM EST


No, it's not WW II and the French Resistance!  It's the latest Bear Cry!  Viva La Resistance!

The SPY has been trying hard to break the 200 SMA.  It has tried for 3 days and has not deceidedly made the move.  The DIA has had it's own little battle with it's resistance line at 122  And it too has not made a strong move, but has also made 3 separate attempts.  Will the fouth time be a "charm".  Could be!  Should be!  Especially since both closed just a hair above the resistance line.  Hence, both charts are looking good for another move up.  They have had a few days of consolidation.  They had an increse in volume today.  So unless there's bad news tomorrow we could see a really nice move.

But wait, I forgot.  In this news drivien market it's unlikely we will get a strong move up without good news from Euroland.  Perhaps the Summit will give us a catalyst.  Perhaps.  But even without anything from Euroland, there is a strong possibility that we will move up from here tomorrow.

Momentum - Up
Trend - Sideways with an up bias

No Silly, Not the Four Tops........

6:58 PM EST


Spinning Tops!  Today was a  <yawn>  boring day.  We had a little upside and ened up with a spinning top on the chart.  As you know a spinning top represents indesicion.  And after a strong advance it can often signal a change in character.  Is that the case today?  Depends on the news tomorrow!  LOL  But the weakness, especially after two red candles is duly noted.  Nothing much else to "muse" about.  Resistance noted on the DIA at 122.

Momentum - STALLED
Trend, UP but waning

Monday Monday, So Good to Me ~~ Mamas and the Papas, Circa 1966

8:57 PM EST

As we all know what goes up, must come down! Seems this morning we got some good news out of Europe. France and Germany said they agreed on something! Amazing! It was enough catalyst to get us up in the morning.  True to the way things have been in the recent past, we gapped up in the morning and went sideways, until we found out the S&P had Germany and a few other countries on the watchlist for possible downgrades!!  OMG!  What a surprise!!  LOL  But, in the end the DIA was up 78 points!

Advantage: Bulls!

On to the charts. The charts are showing a bit of weakness the last 2 days. If you look at the chart of the DIA below you will see that for the last two days (Friday and Monday) the market gapped up and ended lower, creating ugly red candles.

Additionally, looking at a smaller time frame (see the intraday five-day chart below) you'll notice it looks like we might be building a little bear flag. And we all know what that means. What??  Excuse me? You don't know what a bear flag is? A bear flag is a pendant that marches slowly upward giving the bulls confidence that they're making headway........ only to pull the rug out from under them at some point down the road precipitating a large drop in price.

Advantage: bears

Nonetheless prices maintained its stance in the channel and overall we have to give momentum to the bulls.  So for now it's.........

Momentum UP and losing a bit of steam,
All Trends UP

Waitin' 4 the Jobs Data

6: 26 PM

Nothing exciting today.  But hey, after yesterday's upside barnstorming event a little calm was due.  So today we got nothing more than a little consolidation.  A spinning top (indicating indecision) at the top of yesterday's range (giving a bullish twist).  Quite appropriate.  So now we wait, and we wait as time ticks by.  We wait for the announcement on the jobs data tomorrow.  It could be the deciding factor of the day, if no Euroland news pops into view.  Payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings and average workweek on tap tomorrow at 8:30 am.

Looking at the daily chart it's hard not to notice the numerous gaps over the last 4 months.  I don't ever remember a time where the volatility resulted in gaps up and down with such frequency and for such a long period of time.  If you remember such a time, send me a note and the time frame for my review.  I am sure that you, like myself long for the resolution of Euroland and other issues that have created such an intrepid market.

Below are the daily charts for the VIX and the DIA.  Current Momentum is UP~