The Bull: Biding His Time, Having a Beer, as He Awaits the Coming New Year!

11:55 AM EST 12/31/2011


The stock market ends the year with a Ho-Hum and a Sigh.  No fireworks, No Booms, No Bangs.  But the charts still favor the Bulls.  The DIA daily and weekly charts are below and annotated for your reading amusement.  We ended the year slightly above my predicted 12,000 with the DJ-30 at 12,217.  (Applause and cheers please!)  That's UP from last years close of 11,577.  Yes, I know, the press is playing up the SPY clsoing even.  It makes for a better sound bite, eh?

Damned pundits,
And talking heads.
Still yakking away,
When they should be in bed.

As we await the new trading year let me wish you all a very Happy New Year filled with profits and void of pundits and fools.  Click the link below as you read the annotated charts and enjoy a drink with me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acxnmaVTlZA

Momentum - went home
Trend  - Sideways while awaiting the Bull to begin his trek for 2012

Bears 2, Bulls 0

9:10 PM EST Wednesday 12/28/11


Yesterday I pointed out the inability of the indices to get over the resistance line.  (Bears 1, Bulls 0)  And today the reversal took place as the bears won the day.  No surprise to anyone reading this column.  So we're headed back down to a 12,000 DOW to finish the year.  What?  Huh?  Oh, yes, you're right!  OMG~  That is where I predicted we would end the year!!  And mark my words, if we end under that, it spells touble for 2012.

Here's the charts.  Target 20 EMA on the DIA = 120.10

Momentum = Not enough to move a snail
Trend  = Sideways

CHARTS~

Split Decision~? Nah

9 pm EST Tuesday 12/27/11


Today was a really boring day.  And I am still enjoying the holidays.  So what in the heck am I writing this for?  Shits and grins of course!!

Ok, here's the deal.  DIA did try to break out, but then is lost it all like a whoopee cushion losing air.  And the SPY never really broke wind.  So it's Bears by one with 3 days to go.  Seems Santa left lumps of coal for a lot of traders.

Momentum - Is there any?
Trend - Sideways

Charts below!!

The Little Engine that Could

Yes it was looking good until........until........until we got to the resistance line. And then the little engine that could.........didn't. And volume was pitiful. True we expected poor volume so no penalties assessed.

It all falls on Monday. Reversal or rally, Monday will give us our clues. Me? I'm still out for the holidays. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year To all.

Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders Alert

9:14 PM EST 12-22-11


Tonight I was just gazing at the charts and I realized there is a reverse head and shoulders formation for the DIA and the SPY.  This is a bullish formation and could give us a very nice upside rally.  But don't be too quick to jump in!  Price has to break through the resistance line.

The probable rally afterwards is calculated by taking the high after the left shoulder, and subtracting the low of the head.  The difference is added to the breakout price to get the potential upside target.

For the SPY that would be as follows in approximate numbers.
128.00 - 116 = 12.00
126.50 + 12.00 = 138.50 Target Potential

For the DIA
122.00 - 112.00 = 10.00
122.50 + 10.00 = 132.50 Target Potential


Look for Volume and Pace on the breakout to avoid false moves.  And yet, this will most likely occur during a holiday week where volume is poor historically.  It will be a difficult call for each of us to make.

Personally I am most likely going to watch from the sidelines, or not at all, as I enjoy the holidays.  SPY and DIA charts below.  Happy Trading!!

Momentum - Up
Trend - Sideways

Merry Christmas to all and a Hapy New Year~!

Baa-Humbug~! Ebenezer Scrooge, circa 1843 (Charles Dickens's novel, A Christmas Carol)

7:38 AM EST December 21, 2011

Yes, I said it.  When it comes to the market I'm feeling a bit "Scrooge-like".  Except I won't be having any dreams nor will I be changing my mind and giving money away.  Ba-Humbug!!

Yes, it's been over a week since I have written here.  I just got tired of saying the same thing over and over as the market churned over and over.  And it's still churning!

Feels like an old song by the Byrds, originally written by Pete Seeger in 1959

To every index - Churn, Churn, Churn
There is a pattern  - Churn, Churn, Churn
And the Dow will end the year....at twelve thousand.

OK, ok, ok, so there's a few edits by moi~  Euroland, sudden news of good things in real estate (a likely anomaly), sanctimonious Congressmen in the House (and everywhere else) that only care for headlines and themselves, an ineffective President (awwww, can't you guys play nice nice?  Come on, we can find the middle ground, pleaseeeeeeee) and an election year a coming.  Yea, I'm not seeing the love here people!

Yes, yes, getting off topic.  Ok, the charts.  Churn, Churn, Churn.  We are still stuck in the middle of the support and resistance levels.  And I don't see that changing before the end of this year.  Yes, the Santa Claus rally could still happen.  For the record it technically encompasses the time frame around Christmas and New Years, so it's possible.  "Shyeah, and monkeys might fly out of my butt!"  Wayne, Wayne's World (Mike Myers, circa 1992)

Momentum - Don't really care
Trend  - Sideways
Charts - DIA daily and weekly, SPY daily

"Hold.......Hold.......Hold......." - William Wallace, Braveheart, Circa 1995

8:00 PM EST

Today all eyes were on the FED.  And when all was said and done we heard what we have knownin our hearts all along.  Things are improving ever so slightly here in the US.  No new Fed Action.  And Europe is a mess and could affect our recovery.  DUH!!  And it took the best of the best in financial brain power to tell us this.

And just what happened when the genius of Wall street heard this astounding news?  TANK!  Yup, look at an intraday chart and note the time of the TANK.  2PM.  Right on que.  It was as if no one really knew that Europe was still a mess.  Why wasn't this already baked in the pie?

So now we find ourselves in with WIlliam Wallace.  That famous scene where his army is ready to fight the army of Longshanks, the evil King of England.  The "Heavy Horse" are released, and the mounted soldiers gallop forward, faster and faster.  As they get closer and closer, Wallace's army (ready to lift those very long spears), waits and we hear Wallace yelling "Hold.......Hold.......Hold...."  Can you hear him?  Can you see him?

Good, because his kinsman are muttering that same sentiment and if you are long, you should be repeating it as well.  Hold.....Hold......Hold......Hold that support!  Hold.....Hold.....Hold.....SPY hold that 50 SMA!  Hold.....Hold.....Hold..... DIA hold that 200 SMA

Otherwise.......well..... let's not think about the potential downside.  It won't matter as I think we will end the year a hair above DOW 12,000

Possible bounce off support tomorrow.

Momentum - Down
Trend - Sideways


The Charts