Down But Not Out~ Circa who the hell knows!

Just a quick note on the market today.  No time for anything fun, no shenanagens here.  Today was a .......<yawn> ..... <sigh> ...... boring day, or was it?  The market opened lower, took a little dip and tried to move back up on the close.  The end result?  The market was down a smidgen at the close and the charts formed a ...... a ....... a .......... a ........ spinning top!  ~YIKES!  What the hell is that?

Spinning Tops Defined - Click here

But here's the good in the bad.
1 - The spinning top is a green candle.  Ho-hum.
2 - It's at the potential bottom of a pullback signaling a possible reversal.  Ah-ha~
3 - The low of the day bouncing on the 20 EMA and the uptrend line!  Yea baby~!!!!

So all in all I'm thinking a reversal tomorrow and a move up is in the cards.  Watch for the higher high.  And....place your bets gentleman, round and round and round she goes, where she stops nobody knows~

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Down
Medium Term (3 day chart) – Sideways
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – UP

Hold, HOLD, H-O-L-D!! ~ Mel Gibson, Braveheart, Circa 1995

Braveheart Related Clip

Yes, HOLD is the operative word here.  The previously marked support level held Friday.  It needs to hold again this coming week.  Granted a little pullback here would not mar the technicals, but why mess with something that's working?  LOL

Friday the market hit the support level and bounced back.  Yet that damned indecisive candle was formed, a doji.  Hopefully it is signaling a return upward to the resistance line.  Will support continue to hold Monday?  Dunno.  I suspect the answer is yes.  But the day to day gyrations are only known day to day.  The 3 day and weekly charts are still in "UP" mode.  We could drop back to the 124 level and still not violate the uptrend.  Remember this consolidation is but a small battle in the war of winning~  And we needed this consolidation to eventually move forward.

Regardless, it's hard to envision anything but an "UP" ending to the month of January.  And while I hate to "Beat a Dead Horse", but remember the adage, "So goes January, So goes the Year".  It looks like it's gonna be a very good year for the bulls!

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Sideways
Medium Term (3 day chart) – UP
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – UP

The Bad News Bears - Circa 1976, Walter Matthau and Tatum O'Neal

8:47 PM Thursday, January 26, 2012


Today the DIA had a false breakout. We broke through the resistance line previously drawn and fell right back through it. I had said that we need some consolidation, and we had that for the last five days. So the breakout today, was a natural extension of the rally that began in late December. When he turned into a false breakout, it became a disappointment. Now we will be looking for a bounce at the support line indicated in the chart below.

The good news is that January is almost over, and we have a nice gain for the month. It will surely hold a nice gain for the month.  Remember the old axiom, so goes January so goes the year.

If axioms hold true, this will be a great year.


CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – Sideways
Medium Term (3 day chart) – UP
Short Term (Daily Chart) – UP

Pow, Right to the Moon Alice! ~Jackie Gleason, The Honeymooners, Circa 1956-ish

7:58 PM EST Sunday, January 22, 2012


Pow!  Another good day on Friday of all days.  POW!  Right to the Moon Alice!!  DOW up 126 points.  That's how this little Rally/Breakout feels to this blogger~  This little rally HAS legs and is moving like there is no tomorrow.

Better yet, the Prozac that the market has been taking for weeks has finally kicked in the the VIX is finally under 20~!  Waaaaaaa-hooooooo!   Of course the question is, will is STAY under 20, or is this just an aberration in the overall scheme of things.  I think that since the Prozac has kicked in......we stay under 20.  Yes, we need to make sure we the market keeps taking it's meds!  But with the downgrade of several European counties, I believe the powers that be in Europe will get something done and begin to fix that problem.  Yea, Greece is toast.  But we all knew that!

Any who, add to that a little sprinkle of good news here and there and well, what we have here is ... is ... is ... OMG~ yes ... I'll go ahead and say it........what we have here is a BONA FIDE RALLY!

Take one cup of increased Consumer Confidence, a pound of positive news out of China, a sprinkle of good corporate earnings, a pinch of better housing sales and we have the receipe for a sustained rally.  All we need is a little consolidation for another move upward.  Remember, too much too fast requires a pullback, but slow and steady wins the race.

Most importantly remember the old adage folks....... "So Goes January, so goes the Year".  Keep an eye on the remainder of January.  It could be a very good year for the market~!  

Below are a few charts. DIA daily and DIA 3 day.

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – UP
Medium Term (3 day chart) – UP
Short Term (Daily Chart) – UP

Momentum - DO I really need to say it?  OKAY~!  UP!

The Bull is Still Snorting

6 PM January 15, 2012 

This last week has been one filled with consolidation.  The Dow flirted with 12,500 and signaled a retreat, only to turn and ready another attempt.  This consolidation is a good thing, allowing the market to cool a bit before making another move.  Hopefully, that move will be "up".  The charts are giving that indication.

I have not written much lately as there really isn't much to say.  The market made it's move and is continuing that trend nicely.  No, we aren't going up in a blazing fashion, but rather a little bit at a time.  And that's a good thing.  Slow and steady.  Fast moves upward burn out and have to dive back to return to sanity.  I'll take the slow and steady any day of the week!

As for the news, there's enough, and a downgrade of France and a few others in Europe by S & P.  But so far the market has shrugged off the bad news and held it's gains.  Next week is a short week and it will be interesting to see how the market fares, especially with Europe trading on Monday.  And yet if memory serves me right, S & P downgraded the USA and that followed with a market recovery.  Perhaps Europe will do the same.  Can you say QE Europe?

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – Bullish Sideways Consolidation
Medium Term (3 day chart) – Bullish Sideways Consolidation
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Bullish Sideways Consolidation

Mike-ee Like-ee

7:58 PM EST Jan 5, 2012

The last 2 days have not brought the follow thru we hoped for with price taking off to the moon.  But there are good things buried in the chart that might otherwise go unmentioned by the pundits and talking heads

Did you notice the volume over the last few days?  Think "The Jefferson's".  Yes, we're "movin' on up"!  And did you notice we filled the gap, if only with the bottom wick of the candle?  Think "Casa Blanca".  Yes, Casa Blanca!  You know..... He's sitting at the piano....... "So just remember Bill, a fill is still a fill".  What?  Oh, ok, so I changed a couple of words.  Ya gotta cut me a little slack.  I gotta come up with this stuff all by my lonesome!  LOL

In essence, the breakout occured as we hoped, volume is picking up (meaning more buyers are wading in) and we have filled the gap!  Yes, ok, we wanted it to be much more bullish in character.  But the Bull is still snorting and moving forward, hoof by hoof.  Perhaps we're not yet headed to the penthouse, but the elevator is definitely moving in the right direction........... UP!

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – Up
Medium Term (3 day chart) – Up
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Sideways with a Bullish scent

Chart of the Daily DIA Below

ZOWIE! Bam! POW! - Batman TV series circa 1966-68

11:44 EST Jan 3, 2012


Here it is folks, what we've been waiting for.  THE BULLISH SIGNAL!  Inverse head and shoulders on the daily, upper channel breakout on all time frames, all screaming GO, GO, GO!  The Bull has arrived here on the first day of 2012, and while the day is not done, the pace and momentum seem to be back in action this morning.   I would have preferred a smooth run thru the breakout point rather than the gap up, but gaps have been so prevelent lately it's no surprise.  And if the gap is filled it's technically unlikely that it will break down thru support.  It seems we are off to the races.  And while I still want to see the VIX under 20, I'm somewhat satisfied that we are under 25.  That is a good indication that some of this insane volatility has left the market.

Momentum - Up
Trends SHort, Medium and Long Term are all up!

Here's the Daily, 3 day and Weekly charts as of 11:32 am