"Monday, Monday" - The Mamas and the Papas, circa 1966

8:08 PM EST

Monday, Monday.......it's up to you~
Will you break support?
or give us our due?
Oh Monday Monday~

That's were we are folks.  Monday, Monday.  We have had another pullback and we await the answer to the always tense question............will we bounce?  I think we will.  But that and a buck gets me a cup a java.  So I'll just wait for the market to make it's move and play the game on the next candlestick.

So make sure your pre-flight checklist is in order.

Plan intact?  Check
Charts reviewed? Check
Stops in place? Check
Clubs in the trunk?  Check
New glove and tees in the bag?  Check
Alarm set for 7:30 am tee time?  Check

Yuppers.  Go play golf.  Enjoy the day and let the market do it's thing.  We need some resolution and we won't know the answer to the question until the market closes Monday.  It will set the stage for our next move in this game of chess.  And in the meantime you can work on that nasty hook that has developed in your fairway woods!

Charts below with notes of interest.

Congrats to Tiger.  Your back!

Nuttin' Honey - Kellogg's Circa 1980's

9:12 PM EST

Actually it was Nut and Honey.  But for many, and for this blog it's Nuttin' Honey!!  Yup, that's right.  Their ain't nuttin' worth talking about today.....honey!  The rally is intact and moving according to plan.  Ok, not really a plan, but moving nicely.  Friday was a down day, which prolly wasn't a surprise considering it was options expiration day.

So the DIA continues it's march.  Move, Rest, Move.  An army marching forward needs to move, rest, move.......and repeat.  As the market moves, it needs to rest, or pullback and go at it again.  Looks like we could have another pullback here if we break 132.  If we do it's time to add to good positions and initiate potential new ones.

Here's the chart and the Trends.

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Up
Medium Term (3 day chart) – Up
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – Up

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise~ Gomer Pyle, circa late 1960's

11:58 PM EST

Shazam~  It happened.  The DOW broke decisively thru the 13,000 mark and took off!  Hate to say it but ........ told ya!!  Ok, ok, ok.  You got me.  I enjoyed saying it.  At the very beginning of the year I told you we had entered a Bull Market.  I've said it over and over and over.  I mentioned the bullish Golden Cross.  I reminded all of the slogan, "So goes January, so goes the year."  I've brushed off all the nay sayers and doomsday-ers.  I've stuck to my guns and in the last few weeks I have said that if the DOW breaks decisively over 13,000 it would take off.  And BAM!  DOW up 200 plus points!  Nice!!

I hope you have been paying attention.  I hope you have been long and have enjoyed this run to date.  I hope you took advantage of the recent pullback to add to good positions and initiate new ones.  This rally is not done.  Remember what I said about January.  So goes January ......... So goes the Year.

No need for charts.  No need for trend tables.  Just hold those longs and as always, keep those stops in place.  And smile as the profits grow~  Ride the wave baby!!

What?  Really?  Ok, one chart and that's it!

Music for $1,000.....The Answer Is: Doo Wop and The Silhouettes 1957

11:47 EST


Buzzzzzzzz:  What is Dip, Dip, Dip, Dip, Dip, Dip, Dip, Dip.

Yes, it was just what the Doctor ordered.  We had a nice dip, a pullback, and it reversed at the uptrend line creating a "buy the dip" opportunity for those paying attention.  Were you paying attention?  Did you review a ton of charts looking for those stocks setting up for a buy?  Did you add to existing long positions that were setting up for more upside?  Hope so!  Wed was the get in early day.  Thursday was the safe bet day.  And Friday was the late entry momentum day.  Will Monday bring more upside?

Let's Look at the DIA, SPY, QQQ, VIX

Friday's Intra-day charts:  These charts (DIA, SPY, QQQ) are giving us signals filled with indecision.  There was no rally into the end of the day, nor was there strong selling into the close.  So nothing giving a strong carry over to Monday for the upside or downside.

Daily Charts - The DIA's Friday candle is giving us a signal of indecision.  It could even be signaling that things are again looking a bit "toppy".  The SPY isn't much better, having hit the uside resistance once again.  A push thru 138 is needed for the SPY.

3 Day and Weekly - These charts are looking stronger for the SPY and the QQQ.  Both are clearly looking for a break to the upside, the weekly looking like a dragster spinning it's wheels, getting the tires hot and sticky, just waiting for the light to go green.  The DIA is not acting quite as well.  It's working harder to stay at the upside resistance, giving a stronger indication that it needs more sideways consolidation before breaking thru the next upside barrier.  I get the impression that perhaps the market is getting comfortable with the improving global situation and is moving toward increased risk, shifting it's attention from the die hard blue chips of the DOW to the SPY, the QQQ and even the RUSSELL 2000 and 3000 ............ both of which we up strongly the last couple of days.

The VIX.  All the hoopla about the pop over 20.  Hmmmmmm.  A little quick on the draw by the pundits proclaiming doom and gloom.  With the Greek deal done and Employment looking better, the VIX is squarely under 20 and sitting calmly at 17, give or take.  Sanity reigns once again.

Charts, Charts and More Charts!!

Just what the Dr. Ordered???????

9:52 PM EST

Take one pullback in the morning, add a little drama from China, then Europe and see me on Wednesday.

We have broken down thru the 20 EMA and are headed to the 50 SMA. While many would consider this a negative downturn, I'm still thinking healthy pullback.

Yes, I know it was a big day, and the largest single day drop for the year, but I have been saying that we needed a pullback.  For Day Trading or Swing Trading for just a 2-4 day period, the tend is down.  Take advantage.  But for those looking for the longer trade, this breakdown is somewhat expected and just another warning to PAY ATTENTION!  Watch your stops, your profit margins and close long positions when warrented.  If price should CLOSE below the 50 SMA I will become bearish.  But until then, the long term rally is still alive and kicking.

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Down
Medium Term (3 day chart) – Down
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – UP

"Chicken-a-tor II: Judgment Day"

10:41 EST Sunday, March 4, 2012

In "Chicken-a-tor" we all remember his parting vow........."I'll be back" said Chicken Little,  "Asta La Vista Baby".  And sure enough, he has returned, leading the pundits, supposed experts and talking heads while reiterating his battle cry, "The Sky is falling, the Sky is Falling"!

Is this the beginning of the end?  OMG~
Is this finally the beginning of a correction?  Ohhhhhh, Nooooooo!
Pullback! Downturn Ahead!  We're tanking!
Blah, blah, blah, blah , blah, and more such gibberish.

Why is it that the media cronies and pundits are always trying so damned hard to sensationalize everything?
Ratings baby, we need MORE RATINGS!  Walter Cronkite, where are you?  And even more to the point, why to so many people even listen?  Does anyone think for themselves anymore?  Now there's a thought!!  Thinking for yourself.  OMG~!  Shades of Don Worden, a mentor of many and great teacher who "Knighted" his followers who thought for themselves.  BAM!  POWIE! SHAZAM!  We have a WINNER! 

I mean really, a few days of sideways consolidation, not even dropping enough to touch the 20 EMA let alone move back to the 50 SMA and the pundits and naysayers are all over the place predicting doom and gloom.  Here's a heads up people.  No Rally ever went straight up continuously!!  OMG George?  REALLY?  Yes, really.  A rally requires consolidations and pullbacks to continue it's upward momentum without becoming overbought.  (Someone should tell Apple that!!  LOL  It's recent parabolic rise is begging for a pullback.)

Also note that the VIX is under 20 and behaving well.  (Chart below)  The fear factor is subdued to normal risk levels.  And the market is not having the wild 300 point swings we had last year.  DUH!

I has also been pointed out by more than a few pundits that the Russell 2000 is in a negative divergence to the DIA and the SPY.  All I can say to that is ............ DUH!!  Coming out of the cellar, who wants to buy smaller, riskier stocks?  Not me!  I'll take the tried and true.  Have you looked thru a list of the Russell 2000 components?  If not, perhaps you should.  These are far from anything "blue chip".  I'd like to see things solidify more before I start buying stuff from the Russell 2000 index.

Sure, anything can happen.  Sure, this could be the beginning of a downturn.  And we plan for those possibilities.  Can you say "Sell Stop"?  The earth could vaporize at any moment.  Could happen.  An asteroid could collide with the earth.  Could happen.  The Mayan Calendar could be right and 2012 could be the end!  Ohhhhh, no!  Could happen.  And this blog COULD self destruct after you read it.  Could too happen~!!

Knock, knock, knock.  "Hello McFly, anybody in there"?  Knock, knock, knock.  

Remember, we are technicians!  We look at charts.  We check the underlying fundamentals.  We are the actuaries of the marketplace.  We look at the past and try to predict the future.  We knew Dow 13,000 would take some work to get thru.  We've talked about just that.  Lo and behold, that's what's happening!!  OMG~  The shock, the surprise, the dismay!  Amazingly enough the charts are saying nothing but constructive things.  So please, let's take Chicken Little,  place a muzzle on his mouth, and put him back in his cage.  Let him stay there until we get to "Chicken-a-tor III: The Rise of the Machines"

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Sideways Consolidation (Upward Bias intact)
Medium Term (3 day chart) – Sideways Consolidation (Upward Bias intact)
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – UP