Surprise, Surprise, Surprise! ~Gomer Pyle, circa 1962


6:41 PM EST

It was another surprise this week.  Monday we tanked.......again.  And The rest of the week the market recovered.  We once again find ourselves over the daily 50 SMA.  A good thing to be sure, but the burden of proof that this market is still in an uptrend, is clearly on the Bulls.

Yes, last week when the market first dropped below the 50 SMA, everyone was looking for a deeper cut to the downside.  But the market rebounded.  Yet when I look at the volume over the last weeks it is clearly declining as prices move up.  What does that tell you?  Huh?  Excuse me?  Of course you know what that means!  ARGHHH!  OK, here's the 4-1-1.  There are fewer and fewer buyers willing to wade in as the price moves up.  Simple.  And you know what that means!  What!?  AAAAAAARGH!!  Ok, it means when the buyers dry up, as they seem likely to do, price will begin to drop again.  The big question is "drop how far?"  The Bulls need to keep price above the 50 SMA to keep this train on the upside tracks.

Yes, interspersed with all the mediocre data are some salient points, and some really good corporate earnings reports.  Can you say Apple?  Amazon?  Bang, Pow, Zowie! (Batman TV Show)  Or as Jackie Gleason might say in The Honeymooners ......... "Pow, Right to the moon Amazon.  Right to the Moon!"  Ok, yes yes, of course he said Alice, not Amazon.  Duh!   The point is that in spite of the mediocre data there are some really strong corporate earnings reports.  Something many analysts thought would not be present this earnings quarter.  Fooled them!

And yes, the knee jerk reactions of the market participants seems to have returned.  Up, Down, Europe, Amazon, China, Apple, Google, Talking heads.  The VIX jumped around a bit.  The market can't seem to pick a direction and stick with it.  But it's not like it was last year with wild swings of 300-400 points every day.  So it pays to keep your eye on the ball.

To the charts.  Those wonderful, brutally honest charts.  "Just the facts ma'am.  Just the facts." 

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS

Short Term (Daily Chart) – Cautiously Up

Medium Term (3 day chart) – 

Sideways Consolidation

Long Term (Weekly Chart) – 

Sideways Consolidation with a Bullish Bias

On a side note Google has again changed everything, making my job more difficult.  As soon as I get accustomed to one set up, they change it all..... creating hours of extra work.  Please Google.  Revert to the last set up and leave it alone for we poor schmucks!!


The Charts!