"You Just Keep Me Hanging On~  The Supremes - circa 1966

 

3:06 PM EST

This past week there has been no big sell off, no big bounce, no panic selling, no big rally.  The uncertainty seems to just ............ keep us hanging on~!  Click here for Music

 

There really is no need to re-hash all the news of the week.  There was some big news.  But the bad news did not cause a collapse, and the good news did not cause a rally.  And everything seemed so uncertain.  No one was sure if the next news bite would bring something to praise or tears.  The market likes certainty.  And there was little certainty to be found this week.  Greece, Europe. JP Morgan, unemployment, employment, blah, blah, blah, blah. 

 

Shades of Last Years "Slipping on the Greece"

 

I did want to note the news on Greece.  With all that has happened over the last few years, it seems the politicians of Greece still do not understand the dire circumstances of the country's economic situation.  Go figger!!  They are still fighting about accepting austerity measures, etc. etc.  I will be surprised if they manage to stay in the European Union.  If they do it will be a miracle.  And if they do not, it will be a disaster.  The country will go bankrupt and the people of Greece will suffer enormously.  The wave effects will have a global impact.

 

I only mention this to emphasize the intense degree of denial.  And to give a "heads up" to the situation in other countries including ours.  People, especially politicians it seems, are unable to grasp basic economic and budgeting concepts.  They seem unable to see the consequences of the decisions they make until things become cataclysmic.  And even then, as Greece's politicians and people  have illustrated, most simply "do not get it".  Where are the leaders who care about the whole rather than just themselves?  The one's that care about the country rather than just their re-election.  Just Sayin'  

 

Back to the market, it's madness, and the logic of the charts.  The VIX has been pushing higher, and barely managed a close below 20.  Remember, under 20 = low volatility = good.  Over 20 = increasing volatility = bad.  Not only is the VIX barely under 20 but it appears to have made a bottom and is above it's 50, 20 and 100 SMA~!!  OUCH!  (Chart posted below)

 

The DIA.  Daily chart is holding on by the skin of it's teeth!  Closed Friday at 128.18 and the 100 SMA is at 128.16  Whew!!  Dropping below this will change everything and open the market to much more downside.  Minor supports below are 126 and 124 with good support at 122 and major support at 120.  Yes, if we cannot hold the 100 SMA on the daily chart it is likely we could go as low as DOW 12,000 before seeing a change in direction.  What?  Huh?  Yes, seems that old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" might have some validity this year.   I will be pleasantly surprised if the DIA can hold the 100 SMA next week.

 

The 3 day and weekly charts just confirm the story the Daily Chart is showing.  The 3 day chart is reiterating the Daily's major support levels of 122 and 120.  And the Weekly telling us the best support is the 120 level.    Below are the charts and the Trend table for your review.  Enjoy!

   
CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Down
Medium Term (3 day chart) – Sideways and looking for a bounce.
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – Sideways