Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Marketing the Rumors

9:45 PM

Once again the media is bellowing with excitement. Did anyone see these market related headlines??

"Stocks Soar After Europe Debt Plan Hopes Spark Global Rally"
"Europe sparks third day of gains for Wall Street"
"Stocks rise for third day on optimism about Europe"

Hot Damn! This is exciting!! Everyone loves a party!~ And the RUMOR is that Europe is getting ready to host a party!! It must be true! TV said so!! The talking heads are abuzz. Media is in a frenzy! Entertainment value in the news abounds!! And yet when I look at the chart my media related enthusiasm starts to dwindle rather quickly.

"Step Right up" the carney man announces, "See the rally! Hear the rumors. Put down your dollars and watch them disappear!"

Seems all whispering about Europe is still working. Or so the media would have you believe. Yes, the media is even using Warren Buffet. The talking heads are all excited that he is buying back his own stock. The media actually wants you to believe that this is a sign that there are lots of good buys out there. Really? Good buys? Wow, so many good buys that with 40 BILLION dollars to spend, Warren can only find one company to buy.........HIS~! It reminds me of that classic line from the movie "White Men Can't Jump".........."This schit is TOO easy!" The big boys must be saying that as they scoop up the average investors hard earned money.

What the carney man should also be saying is "Step right up, watch the dead cat bounce! Watch him fall from heights above and BOUNCE!"

The charts are still hinting at down. We had our Dead Cat Bounce. And like the Bear Flag that preceded, we are about to head into a nosedive. Look at today's candle on the daily chart. While the talking head are all abuzz about another "up" day today, the candle is advising to beware if the possible reversal.
1. It has wicks on both ends, signaling indecision.
2. It's a red flag. Meaning that it opened high and closed lower! Down side bias.
3. The market tanked at the end of the day. The smart money was getting out. Perhaps the rumors are about to implode?
4. The Dead Cat Bounce has gone as far as it can.
5. We have kissed the channel.............
6. goodbye(?)

The only small fly in the ointment for the above is that we closed just a hair above the bottom line of the channel. Hmmmm. So if Europe does actually do something, we could move up again. Small probability, but there none the less.

One change in the trend table tonight. Now everything is Down~Down~Down

CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Long Term (Weekly Chart) - Down
Medium Term (3 day chart) - Down
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Down


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