What a day~! Over night yields crept up in Europe and the EOD (End of Day) selling from yesterday carried over to this morning despite some good news. Yes, initial jobless claims were down to 388,000. Housing Starts and Building permits were up. But that damned Europe just won't play nice!! Limey Bastards!!
Technical analysis is almost worthless in this environment, as the whispers, rumors and news events are keeping everyone swaying this way and that. Nervousness pervades the market. Looking at a chart of the VIX and it seems stuck over 30 for the last 4 months! Yes, a reading over 30 indicates a lot of fear in the market and a lot of volatility. For what it is worth things are not looking good technically. I would not be surpeised to see more downside to this little run.
The Scoop:
Daily DIA is still in the channel by a thread. It broke below the channel, turned on the 100 SMA and closed at the bottom of the channel. A slim possibility remains that we are still in the uptrend here. VERY SLIM!~ More than likely the weakness will take us down further, perhaps to the 50 SMA before we have a turn around. 3 day and weekly charts still looking ok, but the weakness is showing there too.Watch the news, watch the news, watch the news. Oh, did I mention to watch the news? Daily chart below.
Daily SPY has broken down, no if's..... and's ...... or but's. The daily SPY broke thru the botom of the channel (see S1 on the chart) and is moving down. It came close to the 50 SMA before reversing and closed right at secondary support, S2. Next stop the 50 SMA. After that? After that is down by 2's. 120, 118, 116, 114. Daily chart below.
The QQQ's are in the same shape as the SPY. So it's 2 out of 3 predicting a lower drop and more downside before things change. I suspect the DIA will now follow suit. Changes in the Trends noted below.
CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – Up
Medium Term (3 day chart) – Sideways
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Down
No comments:
Post a Comment