Wednesday, November 9, 2011

"Whoopsie Daisy~!" -Bill "the Butcher" Cutting, Gangs of New York, 2002

6:22 PM

Damn~!  Greece makes nice-nice and everyone gets spooked by Italy.  Go figger!  I just want to know what made 7% the "magic" number?  (For those not in the know that's the number Italy must now pay to borrow money)  Spooky!

Hey, remember that song?  By the Zombies?  It really does apply to the market these days.

You always keep me guessing and I never seem to know what you are thinking;
And if a fellow looks at you it's sure your little eye will be a winkin,
You pull me in thinkin' that you're going up,
and then you turn, and tank, and break my butt.

Love is kinda crazy with a spooky little girl like you.

OK, ok, so I changed a few of the words in the last two lines.  So sue me~  The market nose dived today.  There is no other way to say it.  And I feel compelled to say that the market always drops faster than it moves up.  And it drops with more volume than when it moves up.  Ever since the uptick rule was cast away by the all knowing SEC, precipitous drops on increased volume seem to be the norm.  What's the "uptick" rule??  This was a regulation that went into effect in 1938.  Like the Glass-Steagall Act was enacted to protect the markets, this was designed to stop the market from tanking rapidly.  Remember, after that initial "crash" that marked the beginning of the depression, the market continued to fall for some 10 days.  The uptick rule simply stated that the price of a stock must have an "uptick" (an increase in price) before you could sell short.  So falling stocks were somewhat protected, in that everyone could not simply "pile on".  It was cast away in 2007.  You see folks, FEAR is a much greater force than JOY.  Think about it and you'll surely agree.  So when a stock tanks, everyone runs for the exit.  Hence volume goes up and the price drops precipitously.  Yes, I do think that rule should be placed back into action.  Look at any chart and you can easily see that since 2007 down volume always seems to outpace up volume.

Like everyone else I think there is plenty to worry about.  Iran and the atomic bomb, Greece, Italy, Europe in general, and of course the US Economy.  Climbing this wall of worry will take a lot from the market.  And while corporate earnings are decent this quarter the future is tenuous at best.  Europe's problems will affect us in a bigger way than most people realize.  And yet today could turn out to be like many days in the past few months.  Just a fear raising it's ugly head only to be negated when logical rationale appears in a day or two.  Yet I feel there is a good possibility that we are headed lower (my lack of rationale?)

We are still in the channel and still wiggling our way upward.  Supports are listed in the chart below.  No changes in the trend table.  Yet wait for the turn around at support before adding to or initiating new positions.


CURRENT MARKET TRENDS
Long Term (Weekly Chart) – Up
Medium Term (3 day chart) – Up
Short Term (Daily Chart) – Up


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